UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
Newark, USA
27 Mar 2010
Welterweight
VS
30%
Almeida
70%
Brown
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:30
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brown
Brown is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brown has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Brown has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Almeida's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brown has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Almeida
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
+75"
49
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Almeida
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.0
42.5
45.1
Performance Avg
54.0
39
Quality of Victory
52
72
Momentum Score
78
Almeida
Brown
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.5
49%
Strike Accuracy
60%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
13 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Almeida
Brown
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
5.2
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
3.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.2
3
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Almeida
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
30/45 fights
Almeida
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
78
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Almeida
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
88%
0
KO / TKO Wins
13
3
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Almeida
Brown
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.8
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.2
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
AlmeidaBrown
Strike Zones
Almeida
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedBrown
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the head (100% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Almeida
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0
Almeida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Almeida · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mike PyleRating 5.5Decision
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · 2011-03
W · Dec · R3
TJ GrantRating 4.5Decision
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · 2010-12
L · Sub · R1
Matt HughesRating 1.5Submission
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Matt BrownRating 5.6Submission
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · 2010-03
W · Dec · R3
Kendall GroveRating 4.5Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08
Brown · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Court McGeeRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Carlos ConditRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05