METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
Newark, USA
27 Mar 2010
Welterweight
VS
30%
Almeida
70%
Brown
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:30
★ Official Result
Ricardo AlmeidawinsSubmissionR2 · 3:30
def. Matt Brown · UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Brown
→
Actual result
Almeida wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Brown is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brown has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Risk flags
Almeida's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brown has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlmeidaBrown
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Almeida
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
+75"
49
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Almeida
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.0
42.5
45.1
Performance Avg
54.0
39
Quality of Victory
52
72
Momentum Score
78
Almeida
Brown
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
/ 10
8.8
/ 10
5.1
Style: Pressure
7.9
5.1
Style: Volume
2.1
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
13 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Almeida
Brown
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.2
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
3.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.2
3
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Almeida
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
30/45 fights
Almeida
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
78
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Almeida
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
88%
0
KO / TKO Wins
13
3
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Almeida
Brown
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.8
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.2
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
AlmeidaBrown
Strike Zones
Almeida
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedBrown
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the head (100% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Almeida
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0
Almeida · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mike PyleDecision
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · 2011-03
W · Dec · R3
TJ GrantDecision
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · 2010-12
L · Sub · R1
Matt HughesSubmission
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Matt BrownSubmission
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · 2010-03
W · Dec · R3
Kendall GroveDecision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08
Brown · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Court McGeeKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Carlos ConditDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05