METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Sao Paulo, Brazil
19 Nov 2016
Light Heavyweight
VS
58%
Bader
42%
Nogueira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:51
★ Official Result
Ryan BaderwinsKO/TKOR3 · 3:51
def. Rogerio Nogueira · UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bader
→
Actual result
Bader wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Bader at 58% vs Nogueira at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Bader's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nogueira has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BaderNogueira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Bader
Nogueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
74"
Reach
+75"
43+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Bader
Nogueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
14.4
54.2
Performance Avg
47.0
40
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
20
Bader
Nogueira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.8
/ 10
7.6
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
6.0
6.3
Style: Volume
3.6
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
0
5
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
35Ground0
Bader
Nogueira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bader
Nogueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
26
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
13/33 fights
Bader
Nogueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
20
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Bader
Nogueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
67%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bader
Nogueira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
BaderNogueira
Strike Zones
Bader
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedNogueira
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bader targets the head (86% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bader
RND
Nogueira
0/0R00/0
Bader · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansDecision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisDecision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
Nogueira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannKO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · KO · R2
Sam AlveyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsKO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05