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UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Sao Paulo, Brazil
19 Nov 2016
Light Heavyweight
VS
58%
Bader
42%
Nogueira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:51
RB
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
23 – 5
6'2"74" reachOrthodox43 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 20
RN
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
23 – 10
Striker2-fight slide50 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'2"
CFR 14
★ Official Result
Ryan BaderwinsKO/TKOR3 · 3:51
def. Rogerio Nogueira · UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bader
→
Actual result
Bader wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Bader at 58% vs Nogueira at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Nogueira throws more volume but Bader connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Bader's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nogueira has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
BaderNogueira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Bader
Nogueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
74"
Reach
+75"
43+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Bader
Nogueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
14.4
54.2
Performance Avg
47.0
40
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
20
Bader
Nogueira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
1.7
45%
Strike Accuracy
42%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
0
5
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
35Ground0
Bader
Nogueira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Bader
Nogueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
26
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
13/33 fights
Bader
Nogueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
20
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Bader
Nogueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
67%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bader
Nogueira
Striking4.8 / 7.6Volume6.3 / 3.6Grappling2.0 / 0.8Wrestling1.4 / 0.6Submission0.7 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Bader
Strike Zones
Nogueira
Bader
Attacking
32HEAD5BODY0LEGS37 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Nogueira
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
32HEAD5BODY0LEGS37 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bader targets the head (86% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bader
RND
Nogueira
0/0R00/0

Bader · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.0W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L5.0W1.9L4.5W4.5W5.1W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.2W5.2W2008-122011-022013-012015-012016-11
WinLossTrend

Nogueira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.0W2.8L5.2W1.9L5.5L2009-112011-122016-052020-07
WinLossTrend

Bader · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

Nogueira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05

News & Media

Ryan Bader · Rogerio Nogueira
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