METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
San Jose, USA
11 Jul 2012
Flyweight
VS
85%
Cariaso
15%
Ferguson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Chris CariasowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Josh Ferguson · UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cariaso
→
Actual result
Cariaso wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Cariaso is a strong favourite at 85% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cariaso has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Risk flags
Cariaso's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CariasoFerguson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Cariaso
Ferguson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'5"
64"
Reach
45
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Cariaso
Ferguson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.0
2.4
39.1
Performance Avg
0.0
29
Quality of Victory
0
45
Momentum Score
0
Cariaso
Ferguson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.6
Style: Pressure
0.0
7.9
Style: Volume
0.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
3
6
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance4
4Clinch1
2Ground0
Cariaso
Ferguson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cariaso
Ferguson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/25 fights
Chin rating based on
2/15 fights
Cariaso
Ferguson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Cariaso
Ferguson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cariaso
Ferguson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
CariasoFerguson
Strike Zones
Cariaso
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedFerguson
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cariaso targets the body (75% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Ferguson targets the head (60% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cariaso
RND
Ferguson
0/0R00/0
Cariaso · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisDecision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoDecision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonSubmission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezDecision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
Ferguson · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Chris CariasoDecision
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · 2012-07
L · Sub · R3
Roland DelormeSubmission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller Finale · 2011-12