UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
San Jose, USA
11 Jul 2012
Flyweight
VS
85%
Cariaso
15%
Ferguson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CC
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
17 – 8
5'3"64" reachSouthpaw44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
JF
Josh Ferguson
"Taz"
10 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox5'5"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cariaso

Cariaso is a strong favourite at 85% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Cariaso has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.

Striking split: Cariaso throws more volume but Ferguson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Cariaso's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cariaso
Ferguson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'5"
64"
Reach
44
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Cariaso
Ferguson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.0
2.4
39.1
Performance Avg
0.0
29
Quality of Victory
0
45
Momentum Score
0
Cariaso
Ferguson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.2
43%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
3
6
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance4
4Clinch1
2Ground0
Cariaso
Ferguson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cariaso
Ferguson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
86
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/25 fights
Chin rating based on
2/15 fights
Cariaso
Ferguson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Cariaso
Ferguson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cariaso
Ferguson
Striking2.5 / 0.0Volume7.9 / 0.0Grappling2.1 / 0.0Wrestling1.4 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.6 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Cariaso
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Cariaso
Attacking
2HEAD6BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Ferguson
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD6BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cariaso targets the body (75% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Ferguson targets the head (60% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cariaso
RND
Ferguson
0/0R00/0

Cariaso · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.0L5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W2.1L7.0L5.5L2011-012012-072014-022015-10
WinLossTrend

Ferguson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.0L5.5L2011-122012-07
WinLossTrend

Cariaso · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7
Decision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02

Ferguson · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Chris CariasoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · 2012-07
L · Sub · R3
Roland DelormeRating 4
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller Finale · 2011-12

News & Media

Chris Cariaso · Josh Ferguson
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