METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Fresno, USA
9 Dec 2017
Women's Flyweight
VS
61%
Davis
39%
Carmouche
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Alexis DaviswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Liz Carmouche · UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Davis
→
Actual result
Davis wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Davis holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Carmouche has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Davis throws more volume but Carmouche connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Davis's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DavisCarmouche
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Davis
Carmouche
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
68"+
Reach
66"
41+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Davis
Carmouche
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.5
14.0
39.7
Performance Avg
38.6
28
Quality of Victory
31
45
Momentum Score
40
Davis
Carmouche
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
0.9
47%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
10
1
Body
7
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
3Distance10
0Clinch2
5Ground8
Davis
Carmouche
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Davis
Carmouche
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
80
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/32 fights
Chin rating based on
10/20 fights
Davis
Carmouche
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
40
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Davis
Carmouche
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
20%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Davis
Carmouche
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
3.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.9
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.4
DavisCarmouche
Strike Zones
Davis
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedCarmouche
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Davis targets the head (63% of attacks) — Carmouche absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Carmouche targets the head (50% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Davis
RND
Carmouche
0/0R00/0
Davis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Carmouche · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Davis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Julija StoliarenkoRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Pannie KianzadRating 5.5Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
W · Dec · R3
Sabina MazoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · 2021-02
L · Dec · R3
Viviane AraujoRating 6.2Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
Carmouche · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08
W · Dec · R3
Lucie PudilovaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Alexis DavisRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
Katlyn CerminaraRating 4.8Decision
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11