UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Fresno, USA
9 Dec 2017
Women's Flyweight
VS
61%
Davis
39%
Carmouche
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AD
Alexis Davis
21 – 11
5'6"68" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 22
LC
Liz Carmouche
"Girlrilla"
13 – 7
Well-Rounded42 yrsOrthodox66" reach5'6"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Davis

Davis holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Carmouche has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Davis throws more volume but Carmouche connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Davis's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Davis
Carmouche
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
68"+
Reach
66"
41+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Davis
Carmouche
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.5
14.0
39.7
Performance Avg
38.6
28
Quality of Victory
31
45
Momentum Score
40
Davis
Carmouche
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.9
47%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
10
1
Body
7
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
3Distance10
0Clinch2
5Ground8
Davis
Carmouche
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Davis
Carmouche
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
80
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/32 fights
Chin rating based on
10/20 fights
Davis
Carmouche
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
40
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Davis
Carmouche
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
20%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Davis
Carmouche
Striking1.1 / 3.0Volume8.1 / 7.4Grappling3.1 / 1.9Wrestling2.2 / 1.3Submission1.3 / 0.0Pressure2.6 / 2.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
3.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.9
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.4
Davis
Strike Zones
Carmouche
Davis
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY2LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD7BODY3LEGS20 absorbed
Carmouche
Attacking
10HEAD7BODY3LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY2LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Davis targets the head (63% of attacks) — Carmouche absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Carmouche targets the head (50% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Davis
RND
Carmouche
0/0R00/0

Davis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.2W2.8L4.5W4.5W5.8L5.5L6.2L4.5W5.5L4.8W2013-062015-042018-072021-062022-02
WinLossTrend

Carmouche · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0101.5L6.0W5.5L6.4L5.3W4.8W5.5L4.5W4.5W6.9L2013-022014-042017-122019-08
WinLossTrend

Davis · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Julija StoliarenkoRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Pannie KianzadRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
W · Dec · R3
Sabina MazoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · 2021-02
L · Dec · R3
Viviane AraujoRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03

Carmouche · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08
W · Dec · R3
Lucie PudilovaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Alexis DavisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
Katlyn CerminaraRating 4.8
Decision
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11

News & Media

Alexis Davis · Liz Carmouche
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