UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
New Orleans, USA
17 Sept 2011
Welterweight
VS
88%
Waldburger
12%
Stumpf
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:52
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Waldburger
Waldburger is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Waldburger has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 46 points.
Striking split: Stumpf throws more volume but Waldburger connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Waldburger's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Waldburger
Stumpf
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
75"
Reach
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
—
Waldburger
Stumpf
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.9
2.4
47.4
Performance Avg
0.0
46
Quality of Victory
0
50
Momentum Score
0
Waldburger
Stumpf
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
40%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
1Clinch0
2Ground0
Waldburger
Stumpf
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
6.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
4.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
7.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Waldburger
Stumpf
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
86
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/25 fights
Chin rating based on
2/15 fights
Waldburger
Stumpf
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Waldburger
Stumpf
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Waldburger
Stumpf
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
6.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
4.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
7.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
WaldburgerStumpf
Strike Zones
Waldburger
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedStumpf
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Waldburger targets the head (50% of attacks) — Stumpf absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Waldburger
RND
Stumpf
0/0R00/0
Waldburger · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Stumpf · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Waldburger · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Mike PyleRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02
L · KO · R1
Adlan AmagovRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
W · Sub · R2
Nick CatoneRating 5.2Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
W · Sub · R1
Jake HechtRating 5Submission
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · 2012-03
Stumpf · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Pascal KraussRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · 2013-01
L · Sub · R1
TJ WaldburgerRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09