UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Orlando, USA
3 Dec 2022
Featherweight
VS
5%
Rojo
95%
Marshall
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:14
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Marshall
Marshall is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 48 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Marshall has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Striking split: Marshall throws more volume but Rojo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rojo's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rojo
Marshall
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
71"
Reach
+72"
37
Age
+27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rojo
Marshall
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.6
51.0
0.0
Performance Avg
46.7
0
Quality of Victory
40
0
Momentum Score
60
Rojo
Marshall
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.1
42%
Strike Accuracy
32%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
12
3
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
12Distance8
1Clinch1
0Ground3
Rojo
Marshall
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rojo
Marshall
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/26 fights
Chin rating based on
7/13 fights
Rojo
Marshall
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
60
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Rojo
Marshall
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rojo
Marshall
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
RojoMarshall
Strike Zones
Rojo
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedMarshall
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rojo targets the head (62% of attacks) — Marshall absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Marshall targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rojo absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rojo
RND
Marshall
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Rojo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Marshall · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Rojo · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Francis MarshallRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R3
Kyler PhillipsRating 4.7Submission
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
L · KO · R3
Charles JourdainRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
Marshall · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Lucas BrennanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Erik SilvaRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Mairon SantosRating 7.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Dennis BuzukjaRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
L · KO · R1
Isaac DulgarianRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08