UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
San Antonio, USA
13 Sept 2025
Middleweight
VS
54%
Gastelum
46%
Stoltzfus
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Kelvin
Kelvin Gastelum
21 – 11
5'9"71" reachSouthpaw34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 41
Dustin
Dustin Stoltzfus
16 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gastelum

This is a genuine toss-up — Gastelum at 54% vs Stoltzfus at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Gastelum throws more volume but Stoltzfus connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Stoltzfus has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+75"
34
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
34.6
47.4
Performance Avg
38.9
42
Quality of Victory
45
28
Momentum Score
10
Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.2
43%
Strike Accuracy
46%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
10
4
Body
8
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
19Distance20
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
26
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
10/24 fights
Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
10
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
67%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
1
9
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Striking3.3 / 3.9Volume6.3 / 3.3Grappling2.7 / 3.5Wrestling1.9 / 2.4Submission1.4 / 3.3Pressure4.2 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
Gastelum
Strike Zones
Stoltzfus
Gastelum
Attacking
12HEAD4BODY4LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD8BODY2LEGS20 absorbed
Stoltzfus
Attacking
10HEAD8BODY2LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD4BODY4LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (60% of attacks) — Stoltzfus absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Stoltzfus targets the head (50% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gastelum
RND
Stoltzfus
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Gastelum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.2W6.1L4.5W5.5W3.6L5.0W4.5W6.9L5.5L2.4L4.5W6.4L6.5L5.2W5.1L5.4W7.5L4.5W3.0L2013-042015-112019-112024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Stoltzfus · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0106.1L5.3L5.1L4.5W2.3L6.2W3.1L5.0W7.4L5.8L2020-112022-072024-062025-09
WinLossTrend

Gastelum · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3
Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12

Stoltzfus · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Nursulton RuziboevRating 7.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · KO · R1
Brunno FerreiraRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · Sub · R2
Punahele SorianoRating 6.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12

News & Media

Kelvin Gastelum · Dustin Stoltzfus
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