METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva
San Antonio, USA
13 Sept 2025
Middleweight
VS
53%
Gastelum
47%
Stoltzfus
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kelvin GastelumwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Dustin Stoltzfus · Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gastelum
→
Actual result
Gastelum wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Gastelum at 53% vs Stoltzfus at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stoltzfus has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GastelumStoltzfus
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+75"
34
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
37.1
47.4
Performance Avg
42.1
42
Quality of Victory
46
28
Momentum Score
10
Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
6.3
6.3
Style: Volume
2.7
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
10
4
Body
8
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
19Distance20
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.2
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
26
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
11/24 fights
Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
10
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
75%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
2
9
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gastelum
Stoltzfus
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
GastelumStoltzfus
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedStoltzfus
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (60% of attacks) — Stoltzfus absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Stoltzfus targets the head (50% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gastelum
RND
Stoltzfus
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueSubmission
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Dustin StoltzfusDecision
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Joe PyferDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezDecision
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Sean BradySubmission
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Stoltzfus · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Mansur Abdul-MalikSubmission
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L · Dec · R3
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Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
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