UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Newark, USA
9 May 2026
Lightweight
VS
52%
Green
48%
Stephens
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:20
King
King Green
35 – 17
5'10"71" reachOrthodox39 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 49
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
Well-Rounded7-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Green

This is a genuine toss-up — Green at 52% vs Stephens at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Green has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Green's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Green
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
39+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Green
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.0
45.0
45.9
Performance Avg
41.1
38
Quality of Victory
40
85
Momentum Score
76
Green
Stephens
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.2
1.3
55%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
44
Head
3
9
Body
0
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
22Distance4
0Clinch1
35Ground0
Green
Stephens
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Green
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/52 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Green
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
76
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Green
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
47%
4
KO / TKO Wins
7
3
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Green
Stephens
Striking3.6 / 5.5Volume5.6 / 4.6Grappling2.9 / 1.1Wrestling2.0 / 0.8Submission1.9 / 0.0Pressure4.8 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Green
Strike Zones
Stephens
Green
Attacking
44HEAD9BODY4LEGS57 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY2LEGS5 absorbed
Stephens
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY2LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
44HEAD9BODY4LEGS57 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Green targets the head (77% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the head (60% of attacks) — Green absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Green
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0

Green · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W6.0L2.8L5.5L4.5W6.5L5.5L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.7L6.5L5.0W5.2W3.5L4.0L6.0W6.5W2.7L4.9W3.2L3.2L5.9W5.6W5.5W2013-022018-012021-082023-122026-05
WinLossTrend

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Green · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Jeremy StephensRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Daniel ZellhuberRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Lance Gibson Jr.Rating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Sub · R1
Paddy PimblettRating 3.2
Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

News & Media

King Green · Jeremy Stephens
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