UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee
Rochester, USA
18 May 2019
Featherweight
VS
56%
Arce
44%
Erosa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:49
Julio
Julio Arce
19 – 6
5'7"70" reachSouthpaw36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 49
Julian
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
31 – 14
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'1"
CFR 40

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Arce

This is a genuine toss-up — Arce at 56% vs Erosa at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Erosa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Erosa has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Arce
Erosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+6'1"
70"
Reach
+74"
36
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Arce
Erosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.4
39.6
49.5
Performance Avg
46.2
43
Quality of Victory
44
65
Momentum Score
26
Arce
Erosa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.5
36%
Strike Accuracy
50%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
8
4
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
25Distance10
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Arce
Erosa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
4.4
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
4.4
1
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Arce
Erosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
7
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/25 fights
Chin rating based on
18/45 fights
Arce
Erosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
26
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Arce
Erosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
67%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Arce
Erosa
Striking6.2 / 3.2Volume3.9 / 3.7Grappling2.1 / 4.4Wrestling1.5 / 3.0Submission1.7 / 4.4Pressure6.5 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.4
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Arce
Strike Zones
Erosa
Arce
Attacking
22HEAD4BODY0LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY1LEGS10 absorbed
Erosa
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY1LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD4BODY0LEGS26 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Arce targets the head (85% of attacks) — Erosa absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Erosa targets the head (80% of attacks) — Arce absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Arce
RND
Erosa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Arce · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W5.5W5.5L5.7W5.6L5.2W4.1L5.5W6.4L5.6W2018-012019-052021-112024-03
WinLossTrend

Erosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W2.8L1.5L7.0L4.7L6.6W5.7W1.7L6.3W4.5W4.6W1.7L2.8L5.1W5.6W5.5W6.7L3.9L2015-122020-062022-092025-042026-03
WinLossTrend

Arce · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Herbert BurnsRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Montel JacksonRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R3
Daniel SantosRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · KO · R2
Song YadongRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
W · KO · R2
Andre EwellRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07

Erosa · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Lerryan DouglasRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Christian RodriguezRating 5.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo RamosRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03

News & Media

Julio Arce · Julian Erosa
← Back to fights