METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jun 2009
Lightweight
VS
36%
Stevenson
64%
Diaz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Joe StevensonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Nate Diaz · The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Diaz
→
Actual result
Stevenson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Diaz holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Stevenson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Diaz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Stevenson's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Diaz has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
StevensonDiaz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Stevenson
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+6'0"
70"
Reach
+76"
44
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Stevenson
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.6
35.3
49.2
Performance Avg
53.4
49
Quality of Victory
50
86
Momentum Score
100
Stevenson
Diaz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
1.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
2
0
Body
0
8
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
8Ground1
Stevenson
Diaz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.6
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stevenson
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
58
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/49 fights
Chin rating based on
27/35 fights
Stevenson
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
86
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Stevenson
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
10
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stevenson
Diaz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.6
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.3
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
StevensonDiaz
Strike Zones
Stevenson
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedDiaz
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stevenson targets the legs (89% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the head (50% of attacks) — Stevenson absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stevenson
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0
Stevenson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Diaz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Stevenson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Javier VazquezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Mac DanzigRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · 2010-12
L · Dec · R3
George SotiropoulosRating 5.5Decision
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02
W · KO · R2
Spencer FisherRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08