METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jun 2009
Lightweight
VS
36%
Stevenson
64%
Diaz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Joe StevensonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Nate Diaz · The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Diaz
→
Actual result
Stevenson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Diaz holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Stevenson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Stevenson's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Diaz has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
StevensonDiaz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Stevenson
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+6'0"
70"
Reach
+76"
44
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Stevenson
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.6
35.3
49.2
Performance Avg
53.4
49
Quality of Victory
50
86
Momentum Score
100
Stevenson
Diaz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
7.0
4.0
Style: Volume
3.2
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
2
0
Body
0
8
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
8Ground1
Stevenson
Diaz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.9
/ 10
5.6
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.9
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
6.3
3
Submission wins
10
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Stevenson
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
58
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/49 fights
Chin rating based on
27/35 fights
Stevenson
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
86
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Stevenson
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
10
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stevenson
Diaz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.6
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.3
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
StevensonDiaz
Strike Zones
Stevenson
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedDiaz
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stevenson targets the legs (89% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the head (50% of attacks) — Stevenson absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stevenson
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0
Stevenson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Javier VazquezDecision
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloDecision
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Mac DanzigKO/TKO
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · 2010-12
L · Dec · R3
George SotiropoulosDecision
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02
W · KO · R2
Spencer FisherKO/TKO
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalUFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorDecision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08