UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis
Sao Paulo, Brazil
4 Nov 2023
Heavyweight
VS
50%
Nascimento
50%
Mayes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Rodrigo
Rodrigo Nascimento
"Ze Colmeia"
11 – 3
6'2"80" reachOrthodox33 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 42
Don'Tale
Don'Tale Mayes
"Lord Kong"
11 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox81" reach6'6"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nascimento

This is a genuine toss-up — Nascimento at 50% vs Mayes at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Nascimento throws more volume but Mayes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Nascimento's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Mayes has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nascimento
Mayes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'6"
80"
Reach
+81"
33+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nascimento
Mayes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.9
41.2
41.5
Performance Avg
37.8
31
Quality of Victory
39
73
Momentum Score
43
Nascimento
Mayes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.0
46%
Strike Accuracy
46%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
12
4
Body
11
3
Leg
5
RangeRange
13Distance22
4Clinch6
0Ground0
Nascimento
Mayes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nascimento
Mayes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
56
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/14 fights
Chin rating based on
12/20 fights
Nascimento
Mayes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Nascimento
Mayes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nascimento
Mayes
Striking1.1 / 5.7Volume7.1 / 4.7Grappling3.8 / 1.2Wrestling2.7 / 0.8Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure3.5 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Nascimento
Strike Zones
Mayes
Nascimento
Attacking
10HEAD4BODY3LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD11BODY5LEGS28 absorbed
Mayes
Attacking
12HEAD11BODY5LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD4BODY3LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nascimento targets the head (59% of attacks) — Mayes absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Mayes targets the head (43% of attacks) — Nascimento absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nascimento
RND
Mayes
0/0R00/0

Nascimento · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.6W1.8L5.1W4.5W4.8W4.0L6.3L2020-052022-092023-112024-11
WinLossTrend

Mayes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.8L3.1L4.5W5.6W5.7L6.0W5.8L4.5W6.2L3.4L5.5L2019-102021-122023-112025-022025-05
WinLossTrend

Nascimento · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexandr RomanovRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · KO · R3
Derrick LewisRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Ilir LatifiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Tanner BoserRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · 2022-09

Mayes · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Thomas PetersenRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Valter WalkerRating 3.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Shamil GazievRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Caio MachadoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Dec · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11

News & Media

Rodrigo Nascimento · Don'Tale Mayes
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