UFC 99: The Comeback
Cologne, Germany
13 Jun 2009
Welterweight
VS
45%
Hardy
55%
Davis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DH
Dan Hardy
"The Outlaw"
25 – 10
6'0"74" reachOrthodox44 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 15
MD
Marcus Davis
"The Irish Hand Grenade"
22 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide52 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'10"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Davis

This is a genuine toss-up — Hardy at 45% vs Davis at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Davis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Davis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hardy's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Davis has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Hardy
Davis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
70"
44+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Hardy
Davis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.4
18.7
46.0
Performance Avg
52.8
37
Quality of Victory
48
38
Momentum Score
56
Hardy
Davis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.4
34%
Strike Accuracy
42%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
1
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance2
1Clinch1
2Ground1
Hardy
Davis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
4.1
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.4
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hardy
Davis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
38
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/35 fights
Chin rating based on
15/33 fights
Hardy
Davis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
38
56
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Hardy
Davis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
78%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
4
4
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hardy
Davis
Striking4.5 / 4.5Volume6.5 / 3.0Grappling1.6 / 4.1Wrestling1.1 / 2.9Submission0.0 / 4.4Pressure4.1 / 7.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
Hardy
Strike Zones
Davis
Hardy
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY3LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Davis
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY3LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hardy targets the head (43% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Davis targets the head (75% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hardy
RND
Davis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Hardy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L1.5L5.5L4.0L5.0W4.5W2008-102009-112011-032012-09
WinLossTrend

Davis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.8L5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.2W4.5W5.5L1.5L5.2W4.0L4.5L2005-112007-062008-102010-052011-01
WinLossTrend

Hardy · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Amir SadollahRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
W · KO · R1
Duane LudwigRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
L · Sub · R3
Chris LytleRating 4
Submission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Anthony JohnsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Carlos ConditRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · 2010-10

Davis · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Jeremy StephensRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 125: Resolution · 2011-01
L · Sub · R3
Nate DiazRating 4
Submission
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · 2010-08
W · KO · R2
Jonathan GouletRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 · 2009-11
L · Dec · R3
Dan HardyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 99: The Comeback · 2009-06

News & Media

Dan Hardy · Marcus Davis
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