METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 99: The Comeback
Cologne, Germany
13 Jun 2009
Welterweight
VS
45%
Hardy
55%
Davis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MD
CFR 19
★ Official Result
Dan HardywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Marcus Davis · UFC 99: The Comeback
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Davis
→
Actual result
Hardy wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Hardy at 45% vs Davis at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Davis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Hardy's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Davis has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HardyDavis
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Hardy
Davis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
70"
44+
Age
53
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Hardy
Davis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.4
18.7
46.0
Performance Avg
52.8
37
Quality of Victory
48
38
Momentum Score
56
Hardy
Davis
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.5
/ 10
4.5
/ 10
4.1
Style: Pressure
7.2
6.5
Style: Volume
3.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
1
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance2
1Clinch1
2Ground1
Hardy
Davis
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
4.1
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.4
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hardy
Davis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
38
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/35 fights
Chin rating based on
15/33 fights
Hardy
Davis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
38
56
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Hardy
Davis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
78%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
4
4
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hardy
Davis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
HardyDavis
Strike Zones
Hardy
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedDavis
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hardy targets the head (43% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Davis targets the head (75% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hardy
RND
Davis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hardy · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
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W · KO · R1
Duane LudwigKO/TKO
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L · Sub · R3
Chris LytleSubmission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Anthony JohnsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Carlos ConditKO/TKO
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · 2010-10
Davis · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jeremy StephensKO/TKO
UFC 125: Resolution · 2011-01
L · Sub · R3
Nate DiazSubmission
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · 2010-08
W · KO · R2
Jonathan GouletKO/TKO
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersKO/TKO
UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 · 2009-11
L · Dec · R3
Dan HardyDecision
UFC 99: The Comeback · 2009-06