UFC 59: Reality Check
Anaheim, USA
15 Apr 2006
Welterweight
VS
88%
Alves
12%
Noble
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:54
TA
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23 – 15
5'9"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
DN
Derrick Noble
"The Eraser"
27 – 15
Well-Rounded47 yrsSouthpaw5'9"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alves

Alves is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Alves has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 42 points.

Striking split: Noble throws more volume but Alves connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Alves's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alves
Noble
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
42+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Alves
Noble
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
2.2
47.3
Performance Avg
0.0
42
Quality of Victory
0
63
Momentum Score
0
Alves
Noble
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
7.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
40%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
10
4
Body
4
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
5Distance7
4Clinch11
2Ground0
Alves
Noble
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Noble
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/38 fights
Chin rating based on
1/42 fights
Alves
Noble
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alves
Noble
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alves
Noble
Striking5.8 / 0.0Volume4.3 / 0.0Grappling1.5 / 0.0Wrestling1.0 / 0.0Submission0.7 / 0.0Pressure5.4 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Alves
Strike Zones
Noble
Alves
Attacking
5HEAD4BODY2LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD4BODY4LEGS18 absorbed
Noble
Attacking
10HEAD4BODY4LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD4BODY2LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (45% of attacks) — Noble absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Noble targets the head (56% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alves
RND
Noble
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0102.8L5.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.2W5.2W4.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.0L4.5W5.2W4.4L5.9L4.5W2.8L5.5L5.1W5.5L1.6L2005-102007-112011-052017-042019-12
WinLossTrend

Alves · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02

Noble · Last 1

L · KO · R1
Thiago AlvesRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 59: Reality Check · 2006-04

News & Media

Thiago Alves · Derrick Noble
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