UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Los Angeles, USA
24 Oct 2009
Lightweight
VS
53%
Stevenson
47%
Fisher
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:03
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Stevenson
This is a genuine toss-up — Stevenson at 53% vs Fisher at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Stevenson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Fisher throws more volume but Stevenson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Stevenson's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Fisher has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Stevenson
Fisher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
68"
43+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Stevenson
Fisher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.6
17.7
49.2
Performance Avg
43.8
49
Quality of Victory
38
86
Momentum Score
89
Stevenson
Fisher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
42%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
0
0
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance4
0Clinch0
23Ground0
Stevenson
Fisher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stevenson
Fisher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
24
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/49 fights
Chin rating based on
17/33 fights
Stevenson
Fisher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
86
89
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Stevenson
Fisher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
44%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stevenson
Fisher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
StevensonFisher
Strike Zones
Stevenson
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedFisher
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stevenson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Fisher absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Fisher targets the body (50% of attacks) — Stevenson absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stevenson
RND
Fisher
0/0R00/0
Stevenson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Fisher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Stevenson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Javier VazquezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Mac DanzigRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · 2010-12
L · Dec · R3
George SotiropoulosRating 5.5Decision
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02
W · KO · R2
Spencer FisherRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10
Fisher · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sam StoutRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
L · KO · R2
Thiago TavaresRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Ross PearsonRating 5.5Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Curt WarburtonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · 2010-10
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 5.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale · 2010-06