METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
20 May 2023
Lightweight
VS
61%
Ferreira
39%
Johnson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:50
★ Official Result
Diego FerreirawinsKO/TKOR2 · 1:50
def. Michael Johnson · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferreira
→
Actual result
Ferreira wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Ferreira holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Johnson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Ferreira's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Johnson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FerreiraJohnson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferreira
Johnson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
74"+
Reach
73"
41
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ferreira
Johnson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.1
36.8
50.5
Performance Avg
42.5
44
Quality of Victory
38
100
Momentum Score
35
Ferreira
Johnson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.8
/ 10
4.8
/ 10
6.3
Style: Pressure
4.1
4.1
Style: Volume
6.0
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
6 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
2
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance5
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Ferreira
Johnson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferreira
Johnson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/26 fights
Chin rating based on
32/45 fights
Ferreira
Johnson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
35
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Ferreira
Johnson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
38%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
2
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferreira
Johnson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
FerreiraJohnson
Strike Zones
Ferreira
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedJohnson
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferreira targets the head (67% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Johnson targets the body (80% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferreira
RND
Johnson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ferreira · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Billy QuarantilloDecision
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Alexander HernandezKO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonDecision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R3
Mateusz RebeckiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
Johnson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Drew DoberKO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberDecision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05