METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard
Oklahoma City, USA
16 Sept 2009
Lightweight
VS
67%
Diaz
33%
Guillard
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:13
★ Official Result
Nate DiazwinsSubmissionR2 · 2:13
def. Melvin Guillard · UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Diaz
→
Actual result
Diaz wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Diaz holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Guillard has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Guillard has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DiazGuillard
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Diaz
Guillard
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
71"
41+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Diaz
Guillard
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
17.7
53.4
Performance Avg
49.7
50
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
73
Diaz
Guillard
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
7.0
/ 10
7.0
Style: Pressure
5.8
3.2
Style: Volume
3.8
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
7 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
1
4
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance3
4Clinch1
0Ground0
Diaz
Guillard
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
3.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
6.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
10
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Diaz
Guillard
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
2
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
6
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
22/50 fights
Diaz
Guillard
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
73
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Diaz
Guillard
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
58%
2
KO / TKO Wins
7
10
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
Guillard
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
DiazGuillard
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedGuillard
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (64% of attacks) — Guillard absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Guillard targets the body (50% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
Guillard
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalUFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorDecision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
Guillard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03
Upcoming
Ross PearsonUFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
W · KO · R2
Mac DanzigKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Jamie VarnerDecision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneKO/TKO
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08