UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard
Oklahoma City, USA
16 Sept 2009
Lightweight
VS
67%
Diaz
33%
Guillard
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:13
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Diaz
Diaz holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Guillard has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Diaz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Guillard has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Diaz
Guillard
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
71"
41+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Diaz
Guillard
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
17.7
53.4
Performance Avg
49.7
50
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
73
Diaz
Guillard
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
41%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
1
4
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance3
4Clinch1
0Ground0
Diaz
Guillard
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
3.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Diaz
Guillard
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
2
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
6
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
22/50 fights
Diaz
Guillard
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
73
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Diaz
Guillard
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
58%
2
KO / TKO Wins
7
10
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
Guillard
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
DiazGuillard
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedGuillard
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (64% of attacks) — Guillard absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Guillard targets the body (50% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
Guillard
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Diaz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Guillard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
Guillard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03
Upcoming
Ross PearsonUFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
W · KO · R2
Mac DanzigRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Jamie VarnerRating 5.5Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08