UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
11 Nov 2023
Featherweight
VS
52%
Lopes
48%
Sabatini
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:30
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lopes
This is a genuine toss-up — Lopes at 52% vs Sabatini at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Lopes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Lopes throws more volume but Sabatini connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Sabatini has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lopes
Sabatini
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
72"+
Reach
70"
31+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lopes
Sabatini
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
55.7
55.6
Performance Avg
53.2
48
Quality of Victory
34
69
Momentum Score
81
Lopes
Sabatini
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.5
49%
Strike Accuracy
51%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
3
2
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance5
3Clinch1
6Ground1
Lopes
Sabatini
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lopes
Sabatini
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
56
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/35 fights
Chin rating based on
11/27 fights
Lopes
Sabatini
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
69
81
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Lopes
Sabatini
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lopes
Sabatini
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.6
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
LopesSabatini
Strike Zones
Lopes
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedSabatini
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lopes targets the head (85% of attacks) — Sabatini absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Sabatini targets the head (43% of attacks) — Lopes absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lopes
RND
Sabatini
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lopes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.2WinLossTrend
Sabatini · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Lopes · Last 5
Upcoming
Steve GarciaUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · KO · R2
Jean SilvaRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Sabatini · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
William GomisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalRating 5.6Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Joanderson BritoRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Jonathan PearceRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Diego LopesRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11