METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
11 Nov 2023
Featherweight
VS
53%
Lopes
47%
Sabatini
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:30
★ Official Result
Diego LopeswinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:30
def. Pat Sabatini · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Lopes
→
Actual result
Lopes wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Lopes at 53% vs Sabatini at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lopes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Risk flags
Sabatini has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
LopesSabatini
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Lopes
Sabatini
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
72"+
Reach
70"
31+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lopes
Sabatini
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.9
55.7
57.5
Performance Avg
53.2
49
Quality of Victory
34
69
Momentum Score
81
Lopes
Sabatini
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.1
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
7.1
Style: Pressure
4.8
3.7
Style: Volume
7.0
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
3
2
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance5
3Clinch1
6Ground1
Lopes
Sabatini
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
1
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lopes
Sabatini
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
56
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/35 fights
Chin rating based on
11/27 fights
Lopes
Sabatini
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
69
81
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Lopes
Sabatini
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lopes
Sabatini
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.6
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
LopesSabatini
Strike Zones
Lopes
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedSabatini
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lopes targets the head (85% of attacks) — Sabatini absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Sabatini targets the head (43% of attacks) — Lopes absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lopes
RND
Sabatini
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lopes · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Steve GarciaKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiDecision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · KO · R2
Jean SilvaKO/TKO
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiDecision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Brian OrtegaDecision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Sabatini · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
William GomisDecision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalDecision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Joanderson BritoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Jonathan PearceSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Diego LopesKO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11