UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Los Angeles, USA
24 Oct 2009
Heavyweight
VS
92%
Struve
8%
Gormley
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:04
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Struve
Struve is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Struve has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 50 points.
Striking split: Gormley throws more volume but Struve connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Struve's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gormley has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Struve
Gormley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'11"+
Height
6'3"
84"
Reach
38+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Struve
Gormley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
1.8
51.7
Performance Avg
0.0
50
Quality of Victory
0
98
Momentum Score
0
Struve
Gormley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
2.0
52%
Strike Accuracy
35%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
4
0
Body
4
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance1
0Clinch2
7Ground5
Struve
Gormley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Struve
Gormley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
66
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
8
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/46 fights
Chin rating based on
2/20 fights
Struve
Gormley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Struve
Gormley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
85%
0%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Struve
Gormley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
StruveGormley
Strike Zones
Struve
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedGormley
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Struve targets the head (58% of attacks) — Gormley absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Gormley targets the head (50% of attacks) — Struve absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Struve
RND
Gormley
0/0R00/0
Struve · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Gormley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 1.5WinLossTrend
Struve · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tai TuivasaRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
L · KO · R2
Ben RothwellRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · Sub · R2
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 5.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2Decision
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
Gormley · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Brendan SchaubRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · 2010-03
L · Sub · R1
Stefan StruveRating 1.5Submission
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun · 2009-10