★ Championship Bout · Featherweight
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
Toronto, Canada
30 Apr 2011
Featherweight
VS
73%
Aldo
27%
Hominick
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Jose
Jose Aldo
32 – 10
5'7"70" reachOrthodox39 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
MH
Mark Hominick
"The Machine"
20 – 12
Well-Rounded4-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aldo

Aldo is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Hominick throws more volume but Aldo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Aldo's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Aldo
Hominick
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"+
Reach
68"
39+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aldo
Hominick
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.5
16.8
53.6
Performance Avg
44.0
49
Quality of Victory
45
40
Momentum Score
45
Aldo
Hominick
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.3
48%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
13
0
Body
9
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground20
Aldo
Hominick
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aldo
Hominick
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
72
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/42 fights
Chin rating based on
7/32 fights
Aldo
Hominick
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Aldo
Hominick
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
67%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aldo
Hominick
Striking4.1 / 4.2Volume6.9 / 3.5Grappling1.7 / 3.5Wrestling1.2 / 2.4Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure3.8 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Aldo
Strike Zones
Hominick
Aldo
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD9BODY0LEGS22 absorbed
Hominick
Attacking
13HEAD9BODY0LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aldo targets the head (67% of attacks) — Hominick absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Hominick targets the head (59% of attacks) — Aldo absorbs 59% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aldo
RND
Hominick
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Aldo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.9W4.5W4.5W3.5L4.5W3.8L3.8L5.5W6.0W7.0L5.5L5.5L5.3W5.0W5.7W6.8L5.0W6.6L6.6L2011-042014-102019-022021-122025-05
WinLossTrend

Hominick · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.2W4.5W5.0W6.0L2.0L5.5L5.5L2006-032011-012011-122012-11
WinLossTrend

Aldo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 5
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Rob FontRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12

Hominick · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Pablo GarzaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
L · Dec · R3
Eddie YaginRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04
L · KO · R1
Chan Sung JungRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12
L · Dec · R5
Jose AldoRating 6
Decision
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
W · KO · R1
George RoopRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 2 · 2011-01

News & Media

Jose Aldo · Mark Hominick
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