UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
Fairfax, USA
4 Apr 2015
Lightweight
VS
53%
Poirier
47%
Ferreira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:45
Dustin
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30 – 10
5'9"72" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 61
Diego
Diego Ferreira
19 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'9"
CFR 55

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Poirier

This is a genuine toss-up — Poirier at 53% vs Ferreira at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Ferreira throws more volume but Poirier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ferreira has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Poirier
Ferreira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+74"
37+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Poirier
Ferreira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
55.1
58.2
Performance Avg
50.7
50
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
87
Poirier
Ferreira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
44%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.2
10 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
12
1
Body
5
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
20Distance16
1Clinch4
3Ground0
Poirier
Ferreira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Poirier
Ferreira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Poirier
Ferreira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
87
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Poirier
Ferreira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
70%
10
KO / TKO Wins
5
4
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Poirier
Ferreira
Striking6.0 / 6.2Volume4.0 / 3.6Grappling2.2 / 2.3Wrestling1.6 / 1.6Submission1.8 / 2.0Pressure6.6 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Poirier
Strike Zones
Ferreira
Poirier
Attacking
20HEAD1BODY3LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD5BODY3LEGS20 absorbed
Ferreira
Attacking
12HEAD5BODY3LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD1BODY3LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (83% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Ferreira targets the head (60% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Poirier
RND
Ferreira
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W6.1W3.9L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W3.5L6.0W5.0W4.5W5.7W1.6L4.9W5.2W6.9W5.1W5.6W2.8L5.4W7.1W6.0W4.2L6.3W3.7L6.9W6.0L6.6L2011-012013-122017-022021-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Ferreira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W5.2W6.5L2.8L4.5W5.4W5.3W4.5W4.5W5.2W6.5L2.8L3.8L5.3W6.1W7.0L3.6L2014-062018-022021-022025-012025-09
WinLossTrend

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

Ferreira · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

News & Media

Dustin Poirier · Diego Ferreira
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