The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Las Vegas, USA
15 Dec 2012
Lightweight
VS
66%
Pichel
34%
Khabilov
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:15
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pichel
Pichel holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Khabilov has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pichel has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pichel's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pichel
Khabilov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
72"
Reach
+73"
43
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pichel
Khabilov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.5
19.9
41.3
Performance Avg
48.2
30
Quality of Victory
29
40
Momentum Score
100
Pichel
Khabilov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.7
47%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
12
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch2
0Ground11
Pichel
Khabilov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
1.9
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pichel
Khabilov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
84
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/19 fights
Chin rating based on
13/28 fights
Pichel
Khabilov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Pichel
Khabilov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
10%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pichel
Khabilov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
8.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
PichelKhabilov
Strike Zones
Pichel
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedKhabilov
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Khabilov targets the head (92% of attacks) — Pichel absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pichel
RND
Khabilov
0/0R00/0
Pichel · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Khabilov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Pichel · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Ismael BonfimRating 5.9Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Mark MadsenRating 5.7Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
Khabilov · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Sergey KhandozhkoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
L · Dec · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
Kajan JohnsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
W · Dec · R3
Desmond GreenRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09
W · Dec · R3
Jason SaggoRating 4.5Decision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12