UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
Mexico City, Mexico
15 Nov 2014
Welterweight
VS
27%
Ellenberger
73%
Gastelum
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:46
JE
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31 – 15
5'9"71" reachOrthodox41 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
Kelvin
Kelvin Gastelum
21 – 11
Well-Rounded34 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'9"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gastelum

Gastelum is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Gastelum has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ellenberger's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ellenberger
Gastelum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
41
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ellenberger
Gastelum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
41.4
45.7
Performance Avg
47.4
45
Quality of Victory
42
56
Momentum Score
28
Ellenberger
Gastelum
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.3
42%
Strike Accuracy
43%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
13
3
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance10
2Clinch1
0Ground5
Ellenberger
Gastelum
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ellenberger
Gastelum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
38
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
7
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/46 fights
Chin rating based on
26/32 fights
Ellenberger
Gastelum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
28
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Ellenberger
Gastelum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
36%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ellenberger
Gastelum
Striking6.0 / 3.3Volume3.4 / 6.3Grappling1.5 / 2.7Wrestling1.1 / 1.9Submission1.0 / 1.4Pressure5.6 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Ellenberger
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Ellenberger
Attacking
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD2BODY1LEGS16 absorbed
Gastelum
Attacking
13HEAD2BODY1LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (70% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Gastelum targets the head (81% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 81% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ellenberger
RND
Gastelum
0/0R00/0

Ellenberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.3L1.8L5.2W2.1L5.5L5.4W1.5L2.8L1.5L1.9L2009-092012-022014-112017-042018-08
WinLossTrend

Gastelum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.2W6.1L4.5W5.5W3.6L5.0W4.5W6.9L5.5L2.4L4.5W6.4L6.5L5.2W5.1L5.4W7.5L4.5W3.0L2013-042015-112019-112024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

Gastelum · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3
Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12

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Jake Ellenberger · Kelvin Gastelum
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