METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
Mexico City, Mexico
15 Nov 2014
Welterweight
VS
27%
Ellenberger
73%
Gastelum
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:46
★ Official Result
Kelvin GastelumwinsSubmissionR1 · 4:46
def. Jake Ellenberger · UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gastelum
→
Actual result
Gastelum wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Gastelum is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Ellenberger's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EllenbergerGastelum
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ellenberger
Gastelum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
41
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ellenberger
Gastelum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
41.4
45.7
Performance Avg
47.4
45
Quality of Victory
42
56
Momentum Score
28
Ellenberger
Gastelum
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.0
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
5.6
Style: Pressure
4.2
3.4
Style: Volume
6.3
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
13
3
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance10
2Clinch1
0Ground5
Ellenberger
Gastelum
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
1.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ellenberger
Gastelum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
38
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
7
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/46 fights
Chin rating based on
26/32 fights
Ellenberger
Gastelum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
28
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Ellenberger
Gastelum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
36%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ellenberger
Gastelum
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
EllenbergerGastelum
Strike Zones
Ellenberger
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedGastelum
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (70% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Gastelum targets the head (81% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 81% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ellenberger
RND
Gastelum
0/0R00/0
Ellenberger · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalKO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownKO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusDecision
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Joe PyferDecision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezDecision
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