UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik
Las Vegas, USA
8 Aug 2020
Featherweight
VS
54%
Tucker
46%
Jaynes
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:43
GT
Gavin Tucker
"Guv'nor"
13 – 3
5'6"66" reachSouthpaw39 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 32
JJ
Justin Jaynes
"The Guitar Hero"
16 – 8
Knockout Artist4-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'7"
CFR 28

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tucker

This is a genuine toss-up — Tucker at 54% vs Jaynes at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Jaynes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Jaynes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Tucker's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Jaynes has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tucker
Jaynes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
66"
Reach
+68"
39
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Tucker
Jaynes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.1
27.5
43.9
Performance Avg
44.0
35
Quality of Victory
60
33
Momentum Score
39
Tucker
Jaynes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.6
36%
Strike Accuracy
47%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
6
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance6
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Tucker
Jaynes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.8
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tucker
Jaynes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
62
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/16 fights
Chin rating based on
5/24 fights
Tucker
Jaynes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
39
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
Tucker
Jaynes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tucker
Jaynes
Striking1.1 / 10.0Volume5.1 / 0.4Grappling5.2 / 0.0Wrestling3.6 / 0.0Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure5.2 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
Tucker
Strike Zones
Jaynes
Tucker
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Jaynes
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tucker targets the head (89% of attacks) — Jaynes absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Jaynes targets the head (86% of attacks) — Tucker absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tucker
RND
Jaynes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Tucker · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.5W5.6L5.7W5.5W5.7W2.2L2.8L2017-022019-072020-122023-08
WinLossTrend

Jaynes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.0W4.0L1.7L4.8L5.5L2020-062020-082020-122021-022021-06
WinLossTrend

Tucker · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Diego LopesRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Dan IgeRating 2.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
W · Dec · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · 2020-12
W · Sub · R3
Justin JaynesRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Sub · R3
SeungWoo ChoiRating 5.7
Submission
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07

Jaynes · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Charles RosaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
L · R2
Devonte SmithRating 4.8
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
L · KO · R1
Gabriel BenitezRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R3
Gavin TuckerRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · KO · R1
Frank CamachoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06

News & Media

Gavin Tucker · Justin Jaynes
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