UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen
Boston, USA
17 Aug 2013
Light Heavyweight
VS
73%
Rua
27%
Sonnen
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:47
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rua
Rua is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rua has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Rua has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Rua's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sonnen has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rua
Sonnen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
76"+
Reach
73"
44+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Rua
Sonnen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.0
12.8
49.7
Performance Avg
40.4
51
Quality of Victory
34
46
Momentum Score
45
Rua
Sonnen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.7
55%
Strike Accuracy
41%
8.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
8 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
3
0
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch1
0Ground4
Rua
Sonnen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.7
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
0.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rua
Sonnen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
6
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/41 fights
Chin rating based on
14/44 fights
Rua
Sonnen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Rua
Sonnen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
29%
8
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rua
Sonnen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
RuaSonnen
Strike Zones
Rua
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedSonnen
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sonnen targets the head (60% of attacks) — Rua absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rua
RND
Sonnen
0/0R00/0
Rua · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Sonnen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Rua · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ihor PotieriaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 6.1Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
L · KO · R2
Paul CraigRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Upcoming
Paul CraigDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
Sonnen · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Rashad EvansRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
W · Sub · R1
Mauricio RuaRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
L · KO · R1
Jon JonesRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
L · KO · R2
Anderson SilvaRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
W · Dec · R3
Michael BispingRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · 2012-01