UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Mexico City, Mexico
28 Feb 2026
Flyweight
VS
52%
Moreno
48%
Kavanagh
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Moreno
This is a genuine toss-up — Moreno at 52% vs Kavanagh at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Moreno has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Striking split: Moreno throws more volume but Kavanagh connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Moreno's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moreno
Kavanagh
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
67"
32
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moreno
Kavanagh
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.8
49.0
52.5
Performance Avg
45.0
47
Quality of Victory
25
54
Momentum Score
78
Moreno
Kavanagh
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.8
44%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
5
3
Body
4
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
6Distance11
5Clinch1
0Ground0
Moreno
Kavanagh
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Moreno
Kavanagh
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
78
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/33 fights
Chin rating based on
5/11 fights
Moreno
Kavanagh
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
78
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Moreno
Kavanagh
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moreno
Kavanagh
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.5
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.3
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.5
MorenoKavanagh
Strike Zones
Moreno
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedKavanagh
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moreno targets the head (55% of attacks) — Kavanagh absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Kavanagh targets the head (42% of attacks) — Moreno absorbs 42% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moreno
RND
Kavanagh
0/0R00/0
Moreno · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Kavanagh · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Moreno · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Lone'er KavanaghRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Dec · R5
Brandon RoyvalRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
Kavanagh · Last 5
Upcoming
Brandon RoyvalUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R2
Charles JohnsonRating 3.7KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Felipe dos SantosRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Jose OchoaRating 5.4Decision
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