METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Mexico City, Mexico
28 Feb 2026
Flyweight
VS
56%
Moreno
44%
Kavanagh
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Lone'er KavanaghwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Brandon Moreno · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Moreno
→
Actual result
Kavanagh wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Moreno at 56% vs Kavanagh at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Moreno has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Risk flags
Moreno's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kavanagh has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MorenoKavanagh
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Moreno
Kavanagh
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
67"
32
Age
+27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moreno
Kavanagh
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.8
41.2
52.5
Performance Avg
39.0
47
Quality of Victory
25
54
Momentum Score
60
Moreno
Kavanagh
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
1.8
4.9
Style: Volume
9.2
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
5
3
Body
4
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
6Distance11
5Clinch1
0Ground0
Moreno
Kavanagh
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Moreno
Kavanagh
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
66
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/33 fights
Chin rating based on
6/11 fights
Moreno
Kavanagh
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
60
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Moreno
Kavanagh
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moreno
Kavanagh
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.8
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.2
MorenoKavanagh
Strike Zones
Moreno
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedKavanagh
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moreno targets the head (55% of attacks) — Kavanagh absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Kavanagh targets the head (42% of attacks) — Moreno absorbs 42% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moreno
RND
Kavanagh
0/0R00/0
Moreno · Last 5
Upcoming
Joseph MoralesNoche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09
L · Dec · R5
Lone'er KavanaghDecision
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L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
Kavanagh · Last 5
Upcoming
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L · Sub · R3
Brandon RoyvalSubmission
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W · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R2
Charles JohnsonKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Felipe dos SantosDecision
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