METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Two light heavyweights with near-identical ratings, identical frames, and a shared habit of getting stopped.
There are fights where the data has plenty to say and fights where it shrugs. This is the second kind, and it is worth being straight about that rather than manufacturing an angle. Diyar Nurgozhay and Bruno Lopes have composite ratings of 30.8 and 29.2 — the two lowest on the card and 1.6 points apart. Their quality-of-victory scores are both exactly 25.0. Their momentum scores are both exactly 3…
Nurgozhay (11-2) beat Rafael Tobias by decision in March after being submitted in two of his previous three. A southpaw at 29 with no knockout losses on record — his problems have all come on the ground.
Lopes (14-3) has lost two of his last three, both by knockout — Navajo Stirling in March and Dustin Jacoby in May 2025. At 33 he is the older man by four years, and a 56.0 chin rating is the lowest of the two by some distance.
Two composites 1.6 points apart with identical style profiles — the data cannot separate them
Nurgozhay's vulnerability is submissions; Lopes' is punches
A 76.0 chin rating against 56.0 — the one meaningful gap
Neither man has won two in a row
If Lopes can wrestle at all, Nurgozhay's two recent submission losses are an obvious target
Both men have been finished inside two rounds recently; this could end abruptly in either direction
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown