The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2015
Lightweight
VS
94%
Erosa
6%
Wrzosek
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Julian
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
31 – 14
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw36 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 40
MW
Marcin Wrzosek
"The Polish Zombie"
12 – 4
Well-Rounded38 yrs5'9"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Erosa

Erosa is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Erosa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 44 points.

Erosa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Erosa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Erosa
Wrzosek
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
74"
Reach
36+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
—
Erosa
Wrzosek
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.6
2.7
46.2
Performance Avg
0.0
44
Quality of Victory
0
26
Momentum Score
0
Erosa
Wrzosek
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.7
50%
Strike Accuracy
46%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
18
6
Body
3
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
17Distance16
4Clinch7
1Ground2
Erosa
Wrzosek
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
4.4
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Erosa
Wrzosek
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
98
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
7
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/45 fights
Chin rating based on
1/16 fights
Erosa
Wrzosek
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Erosa
Wrzosek
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Erosa
Wrzosek
Striking3.2 / 0.0Volume3.7 / 0.0Grappling4.4 / 0.0Wrestling3.0 / 0.0Submission4.4 / 0.0Pressure6.2 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Erosa
Strike Zones
Wrzosek
Erosa
Attacking
16HEAD6BODY0LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD3BODY4LEGS25 absorbed
Wrzosek
Attacking
18HEAD3BODY4LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD6BODY0LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Erosa targets the head (73% of attacks) — Wrzosek absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Wrzosek targets the head (72% of attacks) — Erosa absorbs 72% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Erosa
RND
Wrzosek
0/0R00/0

Erosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W2.8L1.5L7.0L4.7L6.6W5.7W1.7L6.3W4.5W4.6W1.7L2.8L5.1W5.6W5.5W6.7L3.9L2015-122020-062022-092025-042026-03
WinLossTrend

Erosa · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Lerryan DouglasRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Christian RodriguezRating 5.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo RamosRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03

Wrzosek · Last 1

L · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaRating 5.7
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12

News & Media

Julian Erosa · Marcin Wrzosek
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