UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
Las Vegas, USA
2 Jul 2011
Lightweight
VS
57%
Guillard
43%
Roller
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:12
MG
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
32 – 18
5'9"71" reachOrthodox43 yrsStriker
CFR 18
SR
Shane Roller
11 – 7
Well-Rounded46 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guillard

This is a genuine toss-up — Guillard at 57% vs Roller at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Guillard has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Guillard's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Roller has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Guillard
Roller
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
+72"
43+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guillard
Roller
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
13.2
49.7
Performance Avg
37.3
45
Quality of Victory
40
73
Momentum Score
28
Guillard
Roller
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.8
41%
Strike Accuracy
41%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
1
3
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
11Distance1
2Clinch0
4Ground0
Guillard
Roller
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guillard
Roller
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
6
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/50 fights
Chin rating based on
6/18 fights
Guillard
Roller
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
28
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Guillard
Roller
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
50%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guillard
Roller
Striking7.0 / 5.7Volume3.8 / 4.7Grappling0.8 / 1.2Wrestling0.6 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.8 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Guillard
Strike Zones
Roller
Guillard
Attacking
11HEAD3BODY3LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Roller
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD3BODY3LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guillard targets the head (65% of attacks) — Roller absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Roller targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guillard absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guillard
RND
Roller
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Guillard · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0104.2W1.5L5.0W5.2W1.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W1.5L1.9L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W5.6L2005-112008-072011-012012-122014-03
WinLossTrend

Roller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.7
0105.2W1.5L4.0L5.6L4.5W1.5L2011-032011-072011-102012-012012-072012-10
WinLossTrend

Guillard · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03
Upcoming
Ross Pearson
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
W · KO · R2
Mac DanzigRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Jamie VarnerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08

Roller · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jacob VolkmannRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
John AlessioRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · 2012-01
L · Sub · R3
TJ GrantRating 4
Submission
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10
L · KO · R1
Melvin GuillardRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07

News & Media

Melvin Guillard · Shane Roller
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