UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith
Stockholm, Sweden
1 Jun 2019
Light Heavyweight
VS
29%
Manuwa
71%
Rakic
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:47
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rakic
Rakic is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Rakic throws more volume but Manuwa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Manuwa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rakic has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Manuwa
Rakic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
79"+
Reach
78"
46
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Manuwa
Rakic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.1
37.5
45.2
Performance Avg
43.8
42
Quality of Victory
37
53
Momentum Score
25
Manuwa
Rakic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.5
53%
Strike Accuracy
50%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
0
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Manuwa
Rakic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.4
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Manuwa
Rakic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
30
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/23 fights
Chin rating based on
11/20 fights
Manuwa
Rakic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
25
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Manuwa
Rakic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Manuwa
Rakic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
ManuwaRakic
Strike Zones
Manuwa
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedRakic
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Manuwa targets the head (50% of attacks) — Rakic absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Rakic targets the head (50% of attacks) — Manuwa absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Manuwa
RND
Rakic
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Manuwa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Rakic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Manuwa · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Aleksandar RakicRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R2
Thiago SantosRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
L · KO · R1
Volkan OezdemirRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
W · KO · R1
Corey AndersonRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson · 2017-03
Rakic · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Azamat MurzakanovRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Jiri ProchazkaRating 4.4KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
W · Dec · R3
Thiago SantosRating 4.5Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03