UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Sao Paulo, Brazil
19 Nov 2016
Middleweight
VS
24%
Ferreira
76%
Hermansson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:11
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hermansson
Hermansson is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hermansson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ferreira's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hermansson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ferreira
Hermansson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
78"+
Reach
77"
41
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ferreira
Hermansson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.6
53.8
49.5
Performance Avg
48.1
43
Quality of Victory
42
58
Momentum Score
97
Ferreira
Hermansson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
2.1
39%
Strike Accuracy
50%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
2
Body
2
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
2Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ferreira
Hermansson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.7
3
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferreira
Hermansson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
19/34 fights
Ferreira
Hermansson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
97
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Ferreira
Hermansson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
55%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferreira
Hermansson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
FerreiraHermansson
Strike Zones
Ferreira
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedHermansson
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferreira targets the body (100% of attacks) — Hermansson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Hermansson targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferreira
RND
Hermansson
0/0R00/0
Ferreira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Hermansson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Ferreira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · 2018-11
W · Sub · R1
Karl RobersonRating 5Submission
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Nate MarquardtRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · 2017-02
Hermansson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Joe PyferRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Roman DolidzeRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07