UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
St. Louis, USA
11 May 2024
Women's Strawweight
VS
49%
Ricci
51%
Pennington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pennington
This is a genuine toss-up — Ricci at 49% vs Pennington at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Ricci has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Pennington has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Ricci
Pennington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
5'1"
61"+
Reach
60"
31+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ricci
Pennington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.5
49.8
48.1
Performance Avg
39.8
38
Quality of Victory
28
53
Momentum Score
89
Ricci
Pennington
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.9
38%
Strike Accuracy
51%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
21
3
Body
2
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance21
4Clinch2
0Ground0
Ricci
Pennington
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ricci
Pennington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
84
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/16 fights
Chin rating based on
19/23 fights
Ricci
Pennington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
89
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Ricci
Pennington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
9%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ricci
Pennington
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.4
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
RicciPennington
Strike Zones
Ricci
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedPennington
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ricci targets the head (68% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Pennington targets the head (91% of attacks) — Ricci absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ricci
RND
Pennington
0/0R00/0
Ricci · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Pennington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Ricci · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Virna JandirobaRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Amanda RibasRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Yan XiaonanRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
W · Dec · R3
Angela HillRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
Pennington · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Carla EsparzaRating 4.8Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Tabatha RicciRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Mackenzie DernRating 6.7Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04