UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Welterweight
VS
53%
Luque
47%
Muhammad
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:19
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Luque
This is a genuine toss-up — Luque at 53% vs Muhammad at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Luque has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Luque has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Luque's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Luque
Muhammad
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
72"
34+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Luque
Muhammad
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.9
56.8
57.2
Performance Avg
48.5
50
Quality of Victory
31
100
Momentum Score
100
Luque
Muhammad
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.4
53%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
7 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
2
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Luque
Muhammad
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.6
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
4.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.7
7
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Luque
Muhammad
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
19 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/36 fights
Chin rating based on
22/29 fights
Luque
Muhammad
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Luque
Muhammad
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
82%
20%
7
KO / TKO Wins
2
7
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Luque
Muhammad
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
LuqueMuhammad
Strike Zones
Luque
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedMuhammad
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Luque targets the head (56% of attacks) — Muhammad absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Muhammad targets the head (67% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Luque
RND
Muhammad
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Luque · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Muhammad · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Luque · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Joel AlvarezRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Sub · R1
Themba GorimboRating 5.4Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R2
Joaquin BuckleyRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
Muhammad · Last 5
Upcoming
Gabriel BonfimUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 7Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05