METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Welterweight
VS
52%
Luque
48%
Muhammad
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:19
★ Official Result
Vicente LuquewinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:19
def. Belal Muhammad · UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Luque
→
Actual result
Luque wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Luque at 52% vs Muhammad at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Luque has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Risk flags
Luque's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Muhammad has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
LuqueMuhammad
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Luque
Muhammad
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
72"
34+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Luque
Muhammad
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.9
55.8
56.1
Performance Avg
47.1
50
Quality of Victory
31
79
Momentum Score
100
Luque
Muhammad
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.4
/ 10
2.8
/ 10
7.7
Style: Pressure
3.5
2.3
Style: Volume
7.8
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
2
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Luque
Muhammad
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.6
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
4.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.7
7
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Luque
Muhammad
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
19 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/36 fights
Chin rating based on
22/29 fights
Luque
Muhammad
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
100
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Luque
Muhammad
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
82%
20%
7
KO / TKO Wins
2
7
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Luque
Muhammad
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.8
LuqueMuhammad
Strike Zones
Luque
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedMuhammad
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Luque targets the head (56% of attacks) — Muhammad absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Muhammad targets the head (67% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Luque
RND
Muhammad
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Luque · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tresean GoreDecision
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Kelvin GastelumSubmission
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L · Dec · R3
Joel AlvarezDecision
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Kevin HollandSubmission
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Themba GorimboSubmission
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Muhammad · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Gabriel BonfimDecision
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryDecision
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L · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaDecision
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W · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
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W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsDecision
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