UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
Hidalgo, USA
17 Sept 2016
Lightweight
VS
22%
Wade
78%
Makhachev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CW
Chris Wade
12 – 3
5'10"70" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 21
Islam
Islam Makhachev
28 – 1
Well-Rounded16-fight win streak34 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'10"
CFR 75

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Makhachev

Makhachev is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 54 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Makhachev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.

Makhachev has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Wade
Makhachev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
70"
38
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Wade
Makhachev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.8
74.5
50.5
Performance Avg
69.8
37
Quality of Victory
53
88
Momentum Score
100
Wade
Makhachev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
0.9
56%
Strike Accuracy
60%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
0
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Wade
Makhachev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Wade
Makhachev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
78
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
16 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/15 fights
Chin rating based on
18/29 fights
Wade
Makhachev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
100
Current form
16-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
Wade
Makhachev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
65%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
8
3
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Wade
Makhachev
Striking1.4 / 3.6Volume6.2 / 4.7Grappling4.6 / 4.6Wrestling3.3 / 3.2Submission4.0 / 4.7Pressure4.9 / 7.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.7
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Wade
Strike Zones
Makhachev
Wade
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Makhachev
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Wade targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Makhachev targets the head (67% of attacks) — Wade absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Wade
RND
Makhachev
0/0R00/0

Wade · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.0W4.5W4.7W5.0W5.5L7.5L4.5W2014-082015-062016-052017-07
WinLossTrend

Makhachev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W1.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W6.1W4.5W6.7W5.6W5.9W5.7W6.5W6.0W6.5W6.8W5.8W6.0W2015-052018-072021-102024-062025-11
WinLossTrend

Wade · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Frankie PerezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · Dec · R3
Islam MakhachevRating 7.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Rustam KhabilovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · Sub · R1
Mehdi BaghdadRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Christos GiagosRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 6
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Renato MoicanoRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 6.8
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6
Decision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02

News & Media

Chris Wade · Islam Makhachev
← Back to fights