UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Anaheim, USA
17 Feb 2024
Heavyweight
VS
48%
Lima
52%
Tafa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:14
Marcos
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
"Pezao"
22 – 10
6'1"75" reachOrthodox40 yrsStriker
CFR 47
Junior
Junior Tafa
"The Juggernaut"
7 – 5
Knockout Artist29 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'3"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tafa

This is a genuine toss-up — Lima at 48% vs Tafa at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Tafa throws more volume but Lima connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Lima's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Tafa has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Lima
Tafa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
75"
40
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lima
Tafa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.3
51.3
53.8
Performance Avg
50.0
49
Quality of Victory
58
59
Momentum Score
39
Lima
Tafa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.9
60%
Strike Accuracy
59%
6.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
4
0
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance5
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Lima
Tafa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lima
Tafa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
40
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/32 fights
Chin rating based on
8/12 fights
Lima
Tafa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
39
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
Lima
Tafa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
100%
6
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lima
Tafa
Striking6.7 / 10.0Volume3.4 / 0.8Grappling2.1 / 0.0Wrestling1.5 / 0.0Submission1.8 / 0.0Pressure6.9 / 8.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
Lima
Strike Zones
Tafa
Lima
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY3LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Tafa
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY3LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lima targets the head (50% of attacks) — Tafa absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Tafa targets the head (80% of attacks) — Lima absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lima
RND
Tafa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Lima · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W5.0W2.7L5.0W1.5L5.0W3.3L4.5W2.8L5.0W2.3L4.5W5.0W5.5L5.7W6.0W2.7L6.1W2014-052017-012020-112023-042024-02
WinLossTrend

Tafa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0106.5L5.0W3.4L3.4L5.2W3.5L4.3L5.0W2023-042024-022024-102026-012026-05
WinLossTrend

Lima · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Junior TafaRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
W · Sub · R1
Andrei ArlovskiRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

Tafa · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Kevin ChristianRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Sub · R2
Billy ElekanaRating 4.3
Submission
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Sub · R2
Tuco TokkosRating 3.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Sean SharafRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Sub · R1
Valter WalkerRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

News & Media

Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Junior Tafa
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