UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
13 Nov 2021
Featherweight
VS
46%
Holloway
54%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rodriguez
This is a genuine toss-up — Holloway at 46% vs Rodriguez at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Holloway has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Holloway's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rodriguez has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Holloway
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
69"
Reach
+71"
34
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holloway
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.2
66.4
56.8
Performance Avg
60.2
47
Quality of Victory
51
63
Momentum Score
100
Holloway
Rodriguez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.5
52%
Strike Accuracy
48%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.1
10 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
37
Head
21
11
Body
7
5
Leg
8
RangeRange
40Distance33
12Clinch3
1Ground0
Holloway
Rodriguez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holloway
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/36 fights
Chin rating based on
16/27 fights
Holloway
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
100
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Holloway
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
52%
46%
10
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holloway
Rodriguez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.1
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
HollowayRodriguez
Strike Zones
Holloway
Attacking
53 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedRodriguez
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
53 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holloway targets the head (70% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (58% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holloway
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0
Holloway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Rodriguez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Holloway · Last 5
Upcoming
Conor McGregorUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Rodriguez · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Patricio PitbullRating 4.5Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Sub · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 4.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R3
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
W · Sub · R2
Josh EmmettRating 5.2Submission
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
W · KO · R1
Brian OrtegaRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07