UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Oct 2021
Women's Strawweight
VS
55%
Dern
45%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Mackenzie
Mackenzie Dern
16 – 5
5'4"63" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 60
Marina
Marina Rodriguez
17 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'6"
CFR 49

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dern

This is a genuine toss-up — Dern at 55% vs Rodriguez at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Rodriguez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Rodriguez has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Dern
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'6"
63"
Reach
+65"
33+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dern
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.6
48.6
51.1
Performance Avg
41.7
39
Quality of Victory
34
94
Momentum Score
83
Dern
Rodriguez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.5
44%
Strike Accuracy
48%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
21
2
Body
8
1
Leg
8
RangeRange
11Distance33
0Clinch4
0Ground0
Dern
Rodriguez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dern
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
48
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/21 fights
Chin rating based on
15/23 fights
Dern
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
83
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Dern
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
29%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dern
Rodriguez
Striking1.4 / 3.9Volume5.7 / 6.8Grappling5.0 / 1.7Wrestling3.5 / 1.2Submission4.5 / 0.0Pressure5.2 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
4.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
Dern
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Dern
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD8BODY8LEGS37 absorbed
Rodriguez
Attacking
21HEAD8BODY8LEGS37 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dern targets the head (73% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (57% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dern
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0

Dern · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.0W5.6L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W6.2L5.2W6.5L4.6W3.5L6.6L5.0W5.4W5.2W2018-032020-092022-042024-022025-10
WinLossTrend

Rodriguez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.5W5.2W5.8L5.4W4.5W5.7W5.5W3.8L6.2L5.2W6.3L6.4L4.0L2019-032021-052023-052025-05
WinLossTrend

Dern · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

Rodriguez · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Gillian RobertsonRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Jessica AndradeRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Virna JandirobaRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

News & Media

Mackenzie Dern · Marina Rodriguez
← Back to fights