Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez

Las Vegas, USA

9 Oct 2021

Women's Strawweight

55%

Dern

45%

Rodriguez

Win Probability

Decision

Round 5 · 5:00

Mackenzie Dern

16 – 5

5'4"63" reachOrthodox33 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 60

Marina Rodriguez

17 – 6

Well-Rounded3-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'6"

CFR 49

★ Official Result

Marina RodriguezwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00

def. Mackenzie Dern · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Dern

→

Actual result

Rodriguez wins

Decision · R5

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Dern at 55% vs Rodriguez at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Rodriguez has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

DernRodriguez

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Dern

Rodriguez

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'4"

Height

+5'6"

63"

Reach

+65"

33+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Dern

Rodriguez

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

60.4

48.6

52.7

Performance Avg

41.7

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Dern

Rodriguez

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.4

/ 10

3.9

/ 10

5.0

Style: Pressure

3.6

6.1

Style: Volume

6.8

0 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

2 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

11Distance33

0Clinch4

0Ground0

Dern

Rodriguez

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.7

/ 10

1.7

/ 10

3.3

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.2

4.2

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Dern

Rodriguez

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.5 stoppage

5 fights ago

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

17/21 fights

Chin rating based on

15/23 fights

Dern

Rodriguez

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

4-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

3-fight 📉 slide

W · Dec · R5

W · Sub · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · KO · R2

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R2

L · Dec · R3

Dern

Rodriguez

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

42%

29%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dern

Rodriguez

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

1.4

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.9

4.7

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.7

3.3

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.2

4.2

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

5.0

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.6

6.1

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.8

Dern

Strike Zones

Rodriguez

Dern

Attacking

11 landed

Absorbing

37 absorbed

Rodriguez

Attacking

37 landed

Absorbing

11 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Dern targets the head (73% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 73% of strikes there

🎯Rodriguez targets the head (57% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dern

RND

Rodriguez

0/0R00/0

Dern · Last 5

W · Dec · R5

Gillian Robertson

Decision

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08

W · Dec · R5

Virna Jandiroba

Decision

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10

W · Sub · R3

Amanda Ribas

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01

W · Dec · R3

Loopy Godinez

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08

L · Dec · R3

Amanda Lemos

Decision

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

Rodriguez · Last 5

L · KO · R2

Gillian Robertson

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05

L · Dec · R3

Iasmin Lucindo

Decision

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

L · Dec · R3

Jessica Andrade

Decision

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

W · KO · R2

Michelle Waterson-Gomez

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09

L · Dec · R3

Virna Jandiroba

Decision

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

News & Media

Mackenzie Dern · Marina Rodriguez

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