★ Championship Bout · Middleweight
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Toronto, Canada
20 Jan 2024
Middleweight
VS
44%
Strickland
56%
Plessis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Plessis
This is a genuine toss-up — Strickland at 44% vs Plessis at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Plessis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Plessis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Strickland's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Strickland
Plessis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
76"
Reach
76"
35
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Strickland
Plessis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.7
73.5
50.9
Performance Avg
65.6
37
Quality of Victory
49
100
Momentum Score
100
Strickland
Plessis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
2.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
53%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.2
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
48
Head
27
4
Body
6
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
53Distance35
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Strickland
Plessis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Strickland
Plessis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/38 fights
Chin rating based on
10/26 fights
Strickland
Plessis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Strickland
Plessis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
2
12
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Strickland
Plessis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
StricklandPlessis
Strike Zones
Strickland
Attacking
53 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedPlessis
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
53 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Strickland targets the head (91% of attacks) — Plessis absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Plessis targets the head (77% of attacks) — Strickland absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Strickland
RND
Plessis
0/0R00/0
Strickland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Plessis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Strickland · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Khamzat ChimaevRating 6.4Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R5
Paulo CostaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
Plessis · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Khamzat ChimaevRating 7.4Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 5.6Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Sub · R4
Israel AdesanyaRating 6.8Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 5.6Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · KO · R2
Robert WhittakerRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07