UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
Norfolk, USA
11 Nov 2017
Bantamweight
VS
70%
Assuncao
30%
Lopez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:50
RA
Raphael Assuncao
28 – 10
5'5"66" reachOrthodox43 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 31
ML
Matthew Lopez
10 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight slide39 yrsSouthpaw69" reach5'7"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Assuncao

Assuncao is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Lopez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Lopez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Assuncao's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lopez has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Assuncao
Lopez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'7"
66"
Reach
+69"
43
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Assuncao
Lopez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.4
13.7
44.2
Performance Avg
38.8
32
Quality of Victory
43
61
Momentum Score
33
Assuncao
Lopez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.5
43%
Strike Accuracy
60%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
2
1
Body
3
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Assuncao
Lopez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.5
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Assuncao
Lopez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
42
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/38 fights
Chin rating based on
6/14 fights
Assuncao
Lopez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
33
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Assuncao
Lopez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Assuncao
Lopez
Striking2.9 / 5.7Volume7.3 / 4.7Grappling2.5 / 1.2Wrestling1.7 / 0.8Submission0.8 / 0.0Pressure3.6 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Assuncao
Strike Zones
Lopez
Assuncao
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY4LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD3BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Lopez
Attacking
2HEAD3BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY4LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Assuncao targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Lopez absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Lopez targets the body (60% of attacks) — Assuncao absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Assuncao
RND
Lopez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Assuncao · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0101.5L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.2W4.6W5.0W4.5W5.6L5.5W4.5W5.5W5.7W1.5L7.0L3.8L3.4L5.4W4.8L2011-032013-102017-062020-062023-03
WinLossTrend

Lopez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.4L4.5W5.0W4.0L2.8L5.9L2016-072016-122017-062017-112018-042018-12
WinLossTrend

Assuncao · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Victor HenryRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
L · KO · R2
Ricky SimonRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
L · KO · R2
Cody GarbrandtRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · Dec · R3
Cory SandhagenRating 7
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08

Lopez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Brad KatonaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · KO · R2
Alejandro PerezRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
L · KO · R3
Raphael AssuncaoRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
W · KO · R1
Johnny EduardoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Mitch GagnonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12

News & Media

Raphael Assuncao · Matthew Lopez
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