UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Phoenix, USA
17 Feb 2019
Welterweight
VS
60%
Luque
40%
Barberena
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Luque
Luque holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Barberena has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Barberena throws more volume but Luque connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Luque's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Barberena has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Luque
Barberena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"+
Reach
72"
34+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Luque
Barberena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.9
43.3
57.2
Performance Avg
43.9
50
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
76
Luque
Barberena
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.7
53%
Strike Accuracy
52%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
7 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
56
Head
60
7
Body
4
8
Leg
2
RangeRange
60Distance63
7Clinch3
4Ground0
Luque
Barberena
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Luque
Barberena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
10
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/36 fights
Chin rating based on
19/30 fights
Luque
Barberena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
76
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Luque
Barberena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
82%
56%
7
KO / TKO Wins
4
7
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Luque
Barberena
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
4.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
LuqueBarberena
Strike Zones
Luque
Attacking
71 landedAbsorbing
66 absorbedBarberena
Attacking
66 landedAbsorbing
71 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Luque targets the head (79% of attacks) — Barberena absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Barberena targets the head (91% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Luque
RND
Barberena
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Luque · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Barberena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Luque · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Joel AlvarezRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Sub · R1
Themba GorimboRating 5.4Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R2
Joaquin BuckleyRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
Barberena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · Sub · R2
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · KO · R2
Robbie LawlerRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07