UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
Las Vegas, USA
5 Nov 2022
Lightweight
VS
62%
Dawson
38%
Madsen
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:05
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dawson
Dawson holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Madsen has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Madsen throws more volume but Dawson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Dawson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Madsen has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dawson
Madsen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
72"
Reach
72"
32+
Age
41
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Dawson
Madsen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.1
39.0
57.5
Performance Avg
46.9
39
Quality of Victory
34
100
Momentum Score
79
Dawson
Madsen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.8
53%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
4
4
Body
2
9
Leg
0
RangeRange
22Distance6
1Clinch0
3Ground0
Dawson
Madsen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
4.2
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dawson
Madsen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/14 fights
Dawson
Madsen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
79
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Dawson
Madsen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
25%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dawson
Madsen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
DawsonMadsen
Strike Zones
Dawson
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedMadsen
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dawson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Madsen absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Madsen targets the head (67% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dawson
RND
Madsen
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Dawson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Madsen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Dawson · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1Submission
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L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R2
Rafa GarciaRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 5.2Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Madsen · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jared GordonRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
L · Sub · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11
W · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelRating 4.7Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5Decision
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