Grant Dawson vs Mark Madsen — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos

Las Vegas, USA

5 Nov 2022

Lightweight

62%

Dawson

38%

Madsen

Win Probability

Submission

Round 3 · 2:05

Grant Dawson

"KGD"

24 – 3

5'10"72" reachSwitch32 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 64

Mark Madsen

"The Olympian"

12 – 2

Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'8"

CFR 39

★ Official Result

Grant DawsonwinsSubmissionR3 · 2:05

def. Mark Madsen · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Dawson

→

Actual result

Dawson wins

Submission · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Dawson holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Madsen has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Dawson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Madsen has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

DawsonMadsen

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Dawson

Madsen

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"+

Height

5'8"

72"

Reach

72"

32+

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

Dawson

Madsen

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

64.1

39.0

57.5

Performance Avg

46.9

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Dawson

Madsen

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.4

/ 10

3.8

/ 10

6.7

Style: Pressure

3.8

5.0

Style: Volume

7.3

2 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

22Distance6

1Clinch0

3Ground0

Dawson

Madsen

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.3

/ 10

1.8

/ 10

3.0

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.3

4.2

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Dawson

Madsen

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

2 fights ago

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

16/27 fights

Chin rating based on

6/14 fights

Dawson

Madsen

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

Current form

2-fight 📉 slide

Upcoming

W · Sub · R3

L · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R2

Last 5

L · KO · R1

L · Sub · R3

W · Dec · R3

Dawson

Madsen

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

58%

25%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dawson

Madsen

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.4

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.8

4.3

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.8

3.0

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.3

4.2

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

6.7

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.8

5.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

7.3

Dawson

Strike Zones

Madsen

Dawson

Attacking

26 landed

Absorbing

6 absorbed

Madsen

Attacking

6 landed

Absorbing

26 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Dawson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Madsen absorbs 50% of strikes there

🎯Madsen targets the head (67% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dawson

RND

Madsen

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Dawson · Last 5

Upcoming

Nurullo Aliev

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · 2026-10

W · Sub · R3

Mateusz Rebecki

Submission

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05

L · KO · R1

Manuel Torres

KO/TKO

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12

W · Dec · R3

Diego Ferreira

Decision

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

W · KO · R2

Rafa Garcia

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10

Madsen · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Jared Gordon

KO/TKO

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

L · Sub · R3

Grant Dawson

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11

W · Dec · R3

Vinc Pichel

Decision

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04

W · Dec · R3

Clay Guida

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08

W · Dec · R3

Austin Hubbard

Decision

UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03

News & Media

Grant Dawson · Mark Madsen

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