UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
Las Vegas, USA
7 Dec 2024
Welterweight
VS
54%
Rakhmonov
46%
Garry
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rakhmonov
This is a genuine toss-up — Rakhmonov at 54% vs Garry at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rakhmonov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Garry throws more volume but Rakhmonov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Rakhmonov
Garry
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
77"+
Reach
74"
31
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rakhmonov
Garry
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
76.4
64.8
68.5
Performance Avg
57.1
48
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
100
Rakhmonov
Garry
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.0
64%
Strike Accuracy
59%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Rakhmonov
Garry
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
4.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rakhmonov
Garry
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/19 fights
Chin rating based on
11/18 fights
Rakhmonov
Garry
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Rakhmonov
Garry
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
86%
30%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
5
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rakhmonov
Garry
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
4.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
7.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.4
RakhmonovGarry
Strike Zones
Rakhmonov
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedGarry
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rakhmonov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Garry absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Garry targets the head (75% of attacks) — Rakhmonov absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rakhmonov
RND
Garry
0/0R00/0
Rakhmonov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Garry · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Rakhmonov · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Ian Machado GarryRating 6Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.8Submission
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W · Sub · R3
Geoff NealRating 6.5Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Sub · R2
Neil MagnyRating 5.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
W · KO · R1
Carlston HarrisRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
Garry · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Carlos PratesRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 7.6Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Michael PageRating 5.3Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Geoff NealRating 5.5Decision
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