UFC 100
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2009
Middleweight
VS
27%
Akiyama
73%
Belcher
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
YA
Yoshihiro Akiyama
14 – 6
5'10"75" reachOrthodox50 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 8
AB
Alan Belcher
"The Talent"
18 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Belcher

Belcher is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Belcher has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.

Striking split: Akiyama throws more volume but Belcher connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Akiyama's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Belcher has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Akiyama
Belcher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'2"
75"
Reach
75"
50
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Akiyama
Belcher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
8.3
22.4
26.4
Performance Avg
53.0
25
Quality of Victory
48
10
Momentum Score
100
Akiyama
Belcher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.4
40%
Strike Accuracy
43%
0.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
25
1
Body
6
0
Leg
8
RangeRange
20Distance39
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Akiyama
Belcher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Akiyama
Belcher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
58
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/20 fights
Chin rating based on
15/26 fights
Akiyama
Belcher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Akiyama
Belcher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
78%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Akiyama
Belcher
Striking0.6 / 5.6Volume8.6 / 2.1Grappling2.4 / 2.9Wrestling1.7 / 2.0Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure0.9 / 7.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
0.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
8.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
Akiyama
Strike Zones
Belcher
Akiyama
Attacking
19HEAD1BODY0LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD6BODY8LEGS39 absorbed
Belcher
Attacking
25HEAD6BODY8LEGS39 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD1BODY0LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Akiyama targets the head (95% of attacks) — Belcher absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Belcher targets the head (64% of attacks) — Akiyama absorbs 64% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Akiyama
RND
Belcher
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Akiyama · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W4.0L5.5L1.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L2009-072010-102012-022015-11
WinLossTrend

Belcher · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.5W2.8L5.0W4.2W1.5L4.7W5.2W5.5L5.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L2006-082007-102009-072012-052013-04
WinLossTrend

Akiyama · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alberto MinaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
W · Dec · R3
Amir SadollahRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Jake ShieldsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson · 2012-02
L · KO · R1
Vitor BelfortRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Michael BispingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · 2010-10

Belcher · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael BispingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
L · Dec · R3
Yushin OkamiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
W · KO · R1
Rousimar PalharesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Sub · R2
Patrick CoteRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05

News & Media

Yoshihiro Akiyama · Alan Belcher
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