★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida
Las Vegas, USA
23 May 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
55%
Machida
45%
Evans
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:57
LM
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24 – 8
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw47 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 19
RE
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
19 – 8
Well-Rounded5-fight slide46 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Machida

This is a genuine toss-up — Machida at 55% vs Evans at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Machida has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Machida's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Evans has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Machida
Evans
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
+75"
47
Age
+46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Machida
Evans
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
15.3
53.8
Performance Avg
53.1
45
Quality of Victory
46
78
Momentum Score
25
Machida
Evans
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.9
54%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
7 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
2
1
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance3
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Machida
Evans
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Machida
Evans
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
24
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/32 fights
Chin rating based on
23/27 fights
Machida
Evans
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
25
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Machida
Evans
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
43%
7
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Machida
Evans
Striking5.7 / 5.6Volume5.3 / 5.8Grappling1.7 / 1.4Wrestling1.2 / 1.0Submission0.6 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 4.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
Machida
Strike Zones
Evans
Machida
Attacking
12HEAD1BODY3LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Evans
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD1BODY3LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Machida targets the head (75% of attacks) — Evans absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Evans targets the head (67% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Machida
RND
Evans
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0

Machida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W3.9L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W6.3L5.0W2.1L2.8L1.8L5.3W5.2W2007-022009-052012-082014-122018-05
WinLossTrend

Evans · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.2W5.2W2.1L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W7.3L5.5L4.5W5.0W5.5L1.9L5.5L5.5L2.7L2005-112008-092012-012016-042018-06
WinLossTrend

Machida · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04

Evans · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Anthony SmithRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
L · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10

News & Media

Lyoto Machida · Rashad Evans
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