UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis
Las Vegas, USA
20 Feb 2021
Heavyweight
VS
37%
Arlovski
63%
Aspinall
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:09
Andrei
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
34 – 24
6'3"77" reachOrthodox47 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 49
Tom
Tom Aspinall
15 – 3
Knockout Artist3-fight win streak33 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'5"
CFR 83

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aspinall

Aspinall holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Arlovski has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Aspinall has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.

Aspinall has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Arlovski's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Arlovski
Aspinall
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'5"
77"
Reach
+78"
47
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Arlovski
Aspinall
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.1
83.0
50.5
Performance Avg
77.7
47
Quality of Victory
70
94
Momentum Score
100
Arlovski
Aspinall
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
4.7
47%
Strike Accuracy
69%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.3
9 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
1
Body
0
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
4Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Arlovski
Aspinall
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.9
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Arlovski
Aspinall
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
78
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
8
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
42/58 fights
Chin rating based on
10/18 fights
Arlovski
Aspinall
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Arlovski
Aspinall
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
48%
100%
9
KO / TKO Wins
6
2
Submission Wins
2
12
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Arlovski
Aspinall
Striking5.0 / 9.3Volume5.3 / 1.8Grappling1.9 / 2.0Wrestling1.4 / 1.4Submission0.9 / 2.5Pressure5.0 / 9.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.7
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
Arlovski
Strike Zones
Aspinall
Arlovski
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY2LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY3LEGS4 absorbed
Aspinall
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY3LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY2LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Arlovski targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Aspinall absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Aspinall targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Arlovski absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Arlovski
RND
Aspinall
0/0R00/0

Arlovski · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W4.0L4.0L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.0W1.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.6L2.1L2.8L1.9L5.9L4.5W4.5W5.9L5.5L5.7L4.5W2.6L5.2W5.1W5.2L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W2.1L3.1L7.0L6.5L2000-112006-122017-062021-042024-06
WinLossTrend

Aspinall · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.0W6.0W5.5W6.3W2.4L5.4W6.2W5.9W2020-072021-092023-072024-07
WinLossTrend

Arlovski · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R2
Don'Tale MayesRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · Sub · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Jake CollierRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

Aspinall · Last 5

Upcoming
Ciryl Gane
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 2.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07

News & Media

Andrei Arlovski · Tom Aspinall
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