UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
Auburn Hills, USA
20 Nov 2010
Welterweight
VS
64%
Brown
36%
Foster
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:11
MB
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26 – 19
6'0"75" reachOrthodox45 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 43
BF
Brian Foster
"The Foster Boy"
27 – 10
Knockout Artist2-fight win streak42 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 23

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Brown

Brown holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Foster has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Foster throws more volume but Brown connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Brown's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Brown
Foster
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
75"+
Reach
71"
45
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
Foster
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
23.4
54.0
Performance Avg
56.9
52
Quality of Victory
55
78
Momentum Score
85
Brown
Foster
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.8
60%
Strike Accuracy
47%
8.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.9
13 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
6
0
Body
3
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground8
Brown
Foster
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
1.2
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brown
Foster
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/45 fights
Chin rating based on
5/37 fights
Brown
Foster
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
85
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
Brown
Foster
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
100%
13
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brown
Foster
Striking8.8 / 7.9Volume2.1 / 1.2Grappling1.2 / 2.7Wrestling0.8 / 1.9Submission1.2 / 3.3Pressure7.9 / 8.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.9
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.8
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.2
Brown
Strike Zones
Foster
Brown
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY3LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD3BODY2LEGS11 absorbed
Foster
Attacking
6HEAD3BODY2LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY3LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Foster absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Foster targets the head (55% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 55% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brown
RND
Foster
0/0R00/0

Brown · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W5.5L5.2W5.0W5.5W2.8L2.8L2.8L4.5W2.8L5.2W5.1W5.2W5.2W5.2W5.0W5.2W5.8L5.5L5.1W4.0L1.5L4.0L5.0W5.2W3.3L5.5L5.2W5.9L5.2W2008-062011-062014-052019-122023-05
WinLossTrend

Foster · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0102.8L5.2W1.5L5.0W5.6W2009-092009-112010-022010-092010-11
WinLossTrend

Brown · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Court McGeeRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Carlos ConditRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05

Foster · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Matt BrownRating 5.6
Submission
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
W · KO · R1
Forrest PetzRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · 2010-09
L · Sub · R1
Chris LytleRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02
W · KO · R2
Brock LarsonRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 · 2009-11
L · Sub · R2
Rick StoryRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 103: Franklin vs Belfort · 2009-09

News & Media

Matt Brown · Brian Foster
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