UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Newark, USA
30 Jan 2016
Welterweight
VS
26%
Dwyer
74%
Brown
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brown
Brown is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dwyer has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Brown has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Brown has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dwyer
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
76"
Reach
+78"
36
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dwyer
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
52.9
46.0
Performance Avg
48.7
60
Quality of Victory
39
43
Momentum Score
92
Dwyer
Brown
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.8
28%
Strike Accuracy
50%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
16
1
Body
2
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
8Distance6
2Clinch11
0Ground2
Dwyer
Brown
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dwyer
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
4
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/13 fights
Chin rating based on
22/28 fights
Dwyer
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
92
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Dwyer
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
0
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dwyer
Brown
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.1
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
DwyerBrown
Strike Zones
Dwyer
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedBrown
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dwyer targets the head (60% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the head (84% of attacks) — Dwyer absorbs 84% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dwyer
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0
Dwyer · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Dwyer · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 6.4Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
L · Dec · R3
Alan JoubanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
William MacarioRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
L · KO · R1
Albert TumenovRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
Brown · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R2
Gabriel BonfimRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R2
Nicolas DalbyRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BattleRating 7.3Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06