UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt
Las Vegas, USA
22 May 2021
Women's Strawweight
VS
57%
Xiaonan
43%
Esparza
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:58
Yan
Yan Xiaonan
19 – 5
5'5"63" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 54
Carla
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
20 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'1"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Xiaonan

This is a genuine toss-up — Xiaonan at 57% vs Esparza at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Xiaonan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Esparza has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Xiaonan
Esparza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'1"
63"
Reach
63"
36+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Xiaonan
Esparza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.2
40.7
45.0
Performance Avg
45.9
29
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
60
Xiaonan
Esparza
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.8
45%
Strike Accuracy
40%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
14
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground13
Xiaonan
Esparza
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Xiaonan
Esparza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
38
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/24 fights
Chin rating based on
16/28 fights
Xiaonan
Esparza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
60
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Xiaonan
Esparza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
11%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Xiaonan
Esparza
Striking2.5 / 2.3Volume8.5 / 7.7Grappling2.1 / 2.7Wrestling1.5 / 1.9Submission0.0 / 1.0Pressure2.9 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.3
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
2.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Xiaonan
Strike Zones
Esparza
Xiaonan
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD0BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Esparza
Attacking
14HEAD0BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Xiaonan targets the head (67% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Esparza targets the head (100% of attacks) — Xiaonan absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Xiaonan
RND
Esparza
0/0R00/0

Xiaonan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.6W4.5W4.5W3.0L6.2L5.7W5.8W7.3L5.2W6.2L2017-112020-022022-102025-04
WinLossTrend

Esparza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0106.7W2.1L4.5W5.5L5.1W4.5W5.5L5.9L5.2W5.7W4.5W5.2W6.2W5.9W4.0L6.2L2014-122017-062019-042021-052024-10
WinLossTrend

Xiaonan · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Virna JandirobaRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Tabatha RicciRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
L · Dec · R5
Zhang WeiliRating 7.3
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
Jessica AndradeRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · Dec · R5
Mackenzie DernRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10

Esparza · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

News & Media

Yan Xiaonan · Carla Esparza
← Back to fights