UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
21 Mar 2015
Welterweight
VS
51%
Silva
49%
Koscheck
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Silva
This is a genuine toss-up — Silva at 51% vs Koscheck at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Silva has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Silva has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Silva's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Koscheck has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Silva
Koscheck
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
73"
41+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Silva
Koscheck
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.5
16.9
51.3
Performance Avg
50.5
54
Quality of Victory
44
46
Momentum Score
59
Silva
Koscheck
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.9
57%
Strike Accuracy
39%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
4
5
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance3
1Clinch1
4Ground0
Silva
Koscheck
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
5.7
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
4.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
7.1
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
5
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Silva
Koscheck
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/28 fights
Chin rating based on
25/28 fights
Silva
Koscheck
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Silva
Koscheck
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
6
5
Submission Wins
3
0
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Silva
Koscheck
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.2
5.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
7.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
SilvaKoscheck
Strike Zones
Silva
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedKoscheck
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Silva targets the head (57% of attacks) — Koscheck absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Koscheck targets the head (100% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Silva
RND
Koscheck
0/0R00/0
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Koscheck · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Silva · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jordan MeinRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos · 2017-12
L · KO · R2
Yancy MedeirosRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Sub · R3
Luan ChagasRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · KO · R2
Nordine TalebRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08
Koscheck · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Erick SilvaRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Jake EllenbergerRating 2.8Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
L · KO · R1
Tyron WoodleyRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
L · KO · R1
Robbie LawlerRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
L · Dec · R3
Johny HendricksRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05