METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
Sao Paulo, Brazil
22 Sept 2018
Light Heavyweight
VS
61%
Alvey
39%
Nogueira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:00
★ Official Result
Rogerio NogueirawinsKO/TKOR2 · 1:00
def. Sam Alvey · UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Alvey
→
Actual result
Nogueira wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Alvey holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Nogueira has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Nogueira throws more volume but Alvey connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Alvey's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nogueira has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlveyNogueira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Alvey
Nogueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
75"
Reach
75"
40+
Age
50
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Alvey
Nogueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.9
14.4
44.3
Performance Avg
47.0
45
Quality of Victory
48
43
Momentum Score
20
Alvey
Nogueira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
1.7
46%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
13
1
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance9
1Clinch3
0Ground2
Alvey
Nogueira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alvey
Nogueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
26
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/51 fights
Chin rating based on
13/33 fights
Alvey
Nogueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
20
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Alvey
Nogueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
67%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alvey
Nogueira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
AlveyNogueira
Strike Zones
Alvey
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedNogueira
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alvey targets the head (63% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Nogueira targets the head (93% of attacks) — Alvey absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alvey
RND
Nogueira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Alvey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Nogueira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Alvey · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Brendan AllenRating 4.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Wellington TurmanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R2
Julian MarquezRating 3.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
Upcoming
Da Woon JungDecision
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
Nogueira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05