UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
Las Vegas, USA
21 Nov 2020
Light Heavyweight
VS
42%
Rua
58%
Craig
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:36
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Craig
This is a genuine toss-up — Rua at 42% vs Craig at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Craig throws more volume but Rua connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rua's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Craig has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rua
Craig
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
76"
Reach
76"
44
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rua
Craig
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.0
49.1
49.7
Performance Avg
50.4
51
Quality of Victory
52
46
Momentum Score
46
Rua
Craig
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.5
55%
Strike Accuracy
47%
8.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
8 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
14
1
Body
3
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
4Distance11
0Clinch1
0Ground9
Rua
Craig
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
0.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rua
Craig
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
6
KO/TKO Losses
6
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/41 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Rua
Craig
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
46
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Rua
Craig
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
100%
8
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
6
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rua
Craig
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
RuaCraig
Strike Zones
Rua
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedCraig
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rua targets the head (75% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Craig targets the head (67% of attacks) — Rua absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rua
RND
Craig
0/0R00/0
Rua · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Craig · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Rua · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ihor PotieriaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 6.1Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
L · KO · R2
Paul CraigRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Upcoming
Paul CraigDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
Craig · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
Upcoming
Rodolfo BellatoUFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Bo NickalRating 7.2Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Caio BorralhoRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenRating 4.1Submission
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